Posted by
James McGraw on Wednesday, May 30, 2007 1:06:53 PM
So why see it as only a threat to the United States? The United Nations has already passed two resolutions against the Iranian Nuclear program with a third potentially on the way. The Russians have suspended work on the Iranian Nuclear reactor due to lack of payment and disgust at the Iranian intransigence concerning Uranium Enrichment. The Israeli's have reportedly requested over flight rights, which illustrates their concerns for their security. Additional nations have weighed in with their concerns at the United Nations and other international organizations, so simply put: Iran is not just an American problem.
More importantly, by perhaps looking at the actions of Iran itself, we can clearly define the level of threat. It is abundantly evident, that Iran through its proxy Hezbollah, attempted to further destabilize the Middle East during the recent outbreak of hostilities in South Lebanon. Just as recently as March 23, 2007, the Iranians abducted 15 British Sailors from the coastal waters of Iraq, what's most critical is to recognize that this is the second time Iran has acted precipitously just prior to a vote in the United Nations concerning their military procurement of nuclear warfare materials. Furthermore, it is very difficult to refute any possibility of Iran's involvement in the Iraqi situation when members of their Revolutionary Guard are captured and their equipment and training are evident throughout the insurgency.
For those that would take issue with the above characterization of the Iranian Nuclear program, some fact review just might be appropriate. If the program were designed for civil energy production, than the behavior pattern of the Iranians would be far less aggressive. The recent war games conducted by the Iranian Military specifically emphasized strategic and tactical missile combat. Just as importantly, the missiles fired were not under the direction of the regular Iranian military but instead under the direction of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. This is critical to understand because the Revolutionary Guard is specifically tasked with exporting the Iranian Revolution as opposed to defending the nation. Additionally, if the program was as advertised, why have it disbursed around the country and protected by multiple layers of both static and mobile defensive measures? Wouldn't a reactor being developed for civil energy production be located where it could serve a large population? The expenditure of resources to decentralize the project has nearly tripled the cost of a standard nuclear energy program. Certainly the refusal to allow international inspectors to visit the multiple sites adds to the concerns.
Therefore, an honest assessment of the threat of Iran towards any nation should be calculated with a cost/benefit analysis of the risk. It appears that the Iranians have done this calculation and that they are prepared to engage in warfare to meet certain objectives that we can only speculate to. Hopefully, the situation can be rectified prior to the enactment of whatever planning the Iranians have developed.